How the Middle East Oil Crisis Could Hit Filipino Consumers

The ongoing war between the United States, Israel, and Iran is starting to ripple far beyond the Middle East—and the Philippines could feel the impact at the fuel pump.

For many Filipino households, shifts in global oil prices quickly translate into higher transportation fares, more expensive goods, and rising daily expenses. Now, analysts warn that disruptions in the global oil supply caused by the conflict could trigger another wave of fuel price hikes.

Conflict shakes global oil markets

The current crisis escalated sharply after joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran killed its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering retaliatory missile and drone attacks across the region.

The Middle East sits at the center of the global energy system, supplying a huge portion of the world’s oil. Much of that oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the most important shipping routes for energy.

Any disruption in this narrow waterway can quickly shake global markets because roughly 20% of the world’s oil trade passes through it.

Recent attacks and security threats in the area have already slowed shipments and pushed oil prices upward.

Why the Philippines is especially vulnerable

The Philippines is particularly exposed to oil supply disruptions because it imports almost all of its fuel.

About 98% of the country’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East, according to government data.

That means any disruption in Middle Eastern supply—or shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz—could quickly push local fuel prices higher.

Asia as a whole relies heavily on Middle Eastern energy, with most oil shipped through Hormuz ultimately heading to Asian markets.

What higher oil prices mean for everyday life

When oil prices rise globally, the effects tend to show up quickly in the Philippines.

Fuel price hikes often lead to increased transportation fares, higher logistics costs, and rising prices for food and other everyday goods.

Businesses also face higher production and delivery expenses, which can add to inflation and slow economic activity.

Jeepney and Bus Fare Hikes Approved

The Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB) has approved higher fares for jeepneys and buses in Metro Manila and provinces to help drivers cope with soaring diesel prices. New rates include:

• PUB provincial (Airconditioned, Super Deluxe, Deluxe): ₱0.35 per km

• PUB provincial (Luxury): ₱0.45 per km

• PUB provincial (Ordinary): ₱1 on the base fare, ₱0.30 per succeeding km

Diesel Could Hit ₱114 Per Liter This Week

From over ₱50 before the war, Diesel prices in the Philippines are expected to climb as high as ₱114 per liter this week. Oil companies are spreading the increases over several days to ease the immediate impact, the Department of Energy said.

Government weighs emergency measures

With the possibility of prolonged supply disruptions, Philippine officials have begun exploring emergency responses to cushion the impact on consumers.

One proposal under discussion is the temporary suspension of fuel excise taxes, which lawmakers say could help ease the burden of rising pump prices.

Authorities are also monitoring the country’s oil reserves and looking into alternative suppliers if disruptions in the Middle East continue.

For now, experts say the biggest factor will be how long the conflict lasts—and whether global oil shipments can continue moving safely through the region.